Rainshowers / Thunderstorms Appear Likely Today : Quite Pleasant on Friday

Showers and Thunderstorms Already Over North Florida
with others Beginning To Form
in Very Spotty Fashion  Elsewhere Should Increase into Early Afternoon 

TODAY: No sig changes from previous two posts as atmospheric workable moisture is up toward 2.00" (precipitable water). As of this hour (11AM) deep moisture convergence is building more toward the west and southern portions of the state with the workable moisture for showers and storms at a sufficient 90% loading capacity. There could be some stronger wind gusts in initial activity but suspect that after any initial raihshowers occur some stabilitzation might put the lid on any chance of stronger storms since low level instability is running only at modest levels at is, and any rainfall will further stabilize the atmosphere in those areas that it rains early on...with early rains onset the atmosphere instability will have little time to build up during the heat of the day already frustrated by varying degrees of cloud coverage.

Storms today should press in from the general SW direction and 'could' pile up mostly in the area in blue (above) where instability is currently being maximized , and where the cloud cover is the least intrusive (prohibitive for better storm activity).

The associated cold front is still well west of Central and South Florida, and is unlikely to clear those areas until well after midnight.  With loss of daytime heating activity should dwindle to spotty rain showers and light post storm drippings to continue here and there toward 10pm if not as late as 2AM. There is a slight chance that somewhere along East Central could have additive moderate rainfall amounts though on top of early day activity is making for some pockets of 2-3 " totals once all is said and done.

FRIDAY: Significant drying out to commence around noontime Central working south during the day with cooler temperatures  in the mid-upper 70Fs for afternoon highs, NNW winds 12-20mph, mainly during the midafternoon but dying down by evening.

Continued pleasant through the weekend with cooler mornings mainly inland toward the west coast as NE winds will quickly modify the temperatures  along the east coast for the overnight cooling time frame. 

A secondary boundary to pass by on Monday into Tuesday should increase cloud coverage in varying degrees, resulting in maybe an isolated sprinkle but so far that's about it for quite some time to come after today in regard to rainfall or active weather.

Chance of Heavy Thunderstorms Thursday

Moisture Behind Tropical Wave now having moved into the Central Gulf could
result in heavier rainfalls on Thursday  

TODAY: Really not much new from the previous post. Moisture from a dampened out tropical/easterly wave is flowing across FLorida into the Central Gulf, though rainshowers could occur anytime today , the best chance later today is toward North and West Florida (see image below)...

THURSDAY: Latest GFS indicates a pre-frontal trough to set up toward the West Side to West Central Side of the state toward early afternoon, though along the east coast almost side-shore winds and another seemingly coastal trough to set up. Between these two, particularly of interest at this time is the one along the east coast, convergence could set up through a good portion of the lower levels of the atmosphere and with a  slightly unstable air mass in place and divergence aloft coupled with all the moisture ahead of the frontal boundary being drawn north ahead of it (the GFS shows up to 2.2" (or more?) precipitable water values as a result of convergence), wouldn't be totally surprised to see rainfall totals somewhere exceeding 3" , but just exactly where, hard to say. Chance of thunderstorms as well, with possibly some stronger winds, but so far it appears the greatest hazard would be blinding rainfall (if said rainfall can manage to occur).

BEYOND: Front to clear Central by near Sunrise toward noon on Friday. It will be quite dry on Friday afternoon and into Saturday with cooler temperatures making for a nice start to the weekend with gradual warming into Sunday. No big rain making situations appear to be setting up for quite a while as a result of a slow moving high pressure area to pass over Florida from the SW Gulf in the days following the cold front's passage.  That high pressure will make for a long period of dry and pleasant weather, especially on Friday and Saturday.

Chance of Heavy Rainshowers/Storms on Thursday (?)

Thinning High clouds should make for a partly to mostly sunny day with a chance
of thunderstorms or showers as noted in locations above later to early evening 

MONDAY/TUESDAY: GFS continues to show and easterly 'tropical wave' ; per discussions from the NWS Offices there is some question concerning how it will be handled in coming days; the GFS shows it dampening out yet making it to Florida as increased atmospheric moisture before the next front arrives. It was questioned whether the front would beat out the moisture in the previous post, but it was thought the moisture 'wave' would win the race. Since that post the GFS a few times showed the moisture might not even make it here at all, but that has flipped back around to the original thinking. What this means is that no effect Monday and Tuesday, with conditions somewhat similar to what we've had the past few days as it is, other than a better chance of some thunder North Parts of the state today. 

Image of atmospheric 'precipitable water' from the GFS Model
(Global Forecast System) for Monday sunrise.
Note the lower right corner  showing the leading edge of deeper moisture.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of a shower or two from the Cape and South sunrise on through the remainder of the day, and maybe some thunder interior to west side of state. 

Here's where changes will be watched for. The latest GFS damps the wave out to cross South Florida on Wednesday  then to get caught up in the next front (see above image)...  converges into the front for Thursday afternoon as it approaches. Could be a chance of some heavy type thunderstorm activity on this day as a result of that occurs, but much will change before that time in regard to the models.  In any case, Thursday appears to be the day with the best rain chance in quite some time to come, from then and beyond as well.

BEYOND THURSDAY: Chances of showers/thunder South Central/South Florida as front goes through with big drying trend to follow...notable by Saturday morning and through the weekend.

Tropical Wave Next Week to Affect Florida?

GFS Depiction of "Precipitable Water" throughout the "Atmospheric Weather Producing Column" has been showing something similar to the above depiction for two straight days, coupled with what looks 'like' a bona fide easterly wave

TODAY - FRIDAY: Little change from the past days with a slight increase in moisture/humidity going into Friday specifically. Otherwise, winds in the afternoon becoming more Southeast with time and a little stronger than past days as well beginning Thursady.

SATURDAY: A slight surge in moisture from the ESE to SE is so far shown to work up the East Coast and more of the state beginning after midnight Friday night to be fully in place across at least the South half of the state by early afternoon, Saturday. Chance of showers mostly with this activity though some thunder might not be able to be ruled out. So far, this looks like a 'one-day' affair as the moisture is drawn further north and west, out of the picture, though some showers could continue over the weekend toward the west 1/2 of the state.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: So far, looks more like back to status quo of little rain chance but all eyes are now on watching this 'easterly wave' type looking 'thing' coming from the tropics region . The GFS has shown this for 6 straight runs now, and shows no sign of that ending so far. Just exactly what will happen with whatever it is finally decided to be by "Them" is unknown...but guidance continues to be a little bouncy concerning whether the moisture will make it to Florida before a cold front from the Plains sweeps in and pulls it all out to the north. It'll be a race with time is what it appears to be, but so far the GFS says the 'wave' wins out. 


The latest GFS run from 2AM EDT (06Z) goes so far as showing a resultant weak surface low forming over South Central Florida  the following day making for a big rain shower/ thunderstorm day on Wednesday beginning in the mid-late morning through late afternoon.  

But, beyond Wednesday, the front having gone through, it's back to dry weather and little more to speak of.

Some Thunderstorms Today/Tonight, Some Large Rainfall Possible

"There's Got to be a Morning After"

"MAY DAY!  MAY DAY! "

"ARCUS  DEFINES THE GUST FRONT OF STORM:  MAY 1, 2014"

TODAY: Not much change from  past 'blog posts' regarding today and tomorrow. Frontal boundary is located close to if not just south of I-4 and little change in location is expected today. Some flood watch or two for a county has been hoisted over along the west coast as a result of persistent moderate to heavy rainfall there, but not so sure that the focus won't shift to the east coast later today through Saturday.

Other than cloud cover resulting in less instability as was expected to occur, winds aloft will be increasing as will upper level divergence going into later today through Saturday as the mid-upper level troughs lower in latitude and shift east from their present locations. The mid-upper level trough supporting this frontal boundary is still located way back across East Central Texas extending Northeastward but will nudge in during the next 24 hours increasing speed shear aloft.

Though impossible to forecast, it might be worth watching for a " later in the day 'outflow' " extending southward from the current area of rainfall  resulting in a new focus area south of the current area of rain. How far south that outflow might go though, if it happens at all, is up in the air. 

Therefore, in speculation, we might see some unexpected rainfall totals later today or tonight into Saturday somewhere along the east coast.

BEYOND SATURDAY: Not expecting mentionable weather for a number of days with a return to near normal early May weather, minus any rain chances.

 

LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS LINK SHOWS "FRONTO-GENESIS
AT THE SURFACE WITHIN THE RED CIRCLES

Chance of an Isolated Stronger Storm Today, Rain Chance Thru Saturday

"Banana River Storm along the Eastern Shores - Cape Canaveral, Florida"

TODAY: Some minor differences from the past few days with,  as always, a few hiccups between model guidance both between models and individual runs within any given model (in regard to the short term).

Rather than spending too much time with nit-picking details that likely will never materialize anyway, the only thing that stands out different today from the past two days is that both the NAM (which I rarely rely on any more) and also the short term RAP model runs are showing stronger upward vertical velocities along the east coast from Brevard south to St. Lucie Counties with a bullseye over Central to Southern Brevard county, at least as of 11AM. 

The proverbial " fly in the ointment " is that this occurs too early in the day, and ends up amounting to nothing when otherwise it could indicate the better chance for a  "near severe" (storm) or two. But, given those are rather recent depictions, the blog post includes to highlight that region as 'possible strong storms' for that reason and that reason only. There was a recorded gust of 72 m.p.h. yesterday by the Haulover canal on the north side of  no-man's land Kennedy Space Center just as a side note.. otherwise, gusts were in the 40 mph range with most storms which really isn't all that unusual for a thunderstorm.  

Also in looking outside, it's clear we are once again contending with a con- factor of high thin clouds over north and central Florida from time to time; but for parts of Central it might prove to be irrelevant, since low levels winds will advect heat and instability from the more cloud free skies over Southern Florida, as they blow from the SW-SSW into Central Florida underneath the thin , high canopy. 

In general , a sea breeze will again form but be more 'side-shore' and closer to the coast than the past two days (I suspect),  which would mean the stronger activity might occur further east today .  

COULD BE WORSE. Images below were posted to TWITTER and FACEBOOK showing the storm that generated the EF-4 Rated Tornado the other day in Mississippi. 

Could be some lingering activity beyond 9pm along the east coast from Brevard  and/or  Indian River Counties tonight in the form of light rain as was the case the past 2 evenings. 

"Suspect Area -51" in purple.
Otherwise some storms with the main hazard being lightning 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Frontal boundary across North Florida today will be located tomorrow across North Central to Central Florida and remain in the area around I-4 tomorrow and perhaps further south on Saturday. Increasing cloudiness and showery activity is possible with some heavy rainfall possible on Saturday  I-4 toward the Beach Line Zone. 

So far, Saturday seems to be the least decent day due to either increased rain chances and/or cloud cover, but quickly improving conditions will manifest on Sunday as the front clears to the south and the atmosphere dries out significantly. Our  few days recently of 75F dew points appears to be coming to an end shortly.

After Saturday, rain chances are zero for quite a few number of days ahead.